As voters queue up to cast their votes in UP’s Phase 2 of elections — 55 Assembly seats spread across nine Uttar Pradesh districts — this might be one of the toughest battles for the BJP.
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In many of the Assembly segments falling under Phase 2, the concentration of Muslims is much higher, thus making the contest tough for the ruling BJP. The Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) combined seems stronger in this region.
Let’s take a look at the seats going to the polls and why it’s a tough ask for the BJP.
Constituencies up for grab
The 55 Assembly seats are spread over constituencies such as Saharanpur, Bijnor, Moradabad, Sambhal, Rampur, Amroha, Budaun, Bareilly and Shahjahanpur.
The areas going to polls in this phase have a sizeable Muslim population influenced by religious leaders of the Barelvi and Deoband sects.
These areas are considered strongholds of the Samajwadi Party.
The number of Muslim voters in Rampur, Moradabad, Bijnore and Amroha exceed 40 per cent while in Bareilly its share in total votes is 34.54 per cent. In Rampur district, the number of Muslim voters are maximum in UP with 50.57 per cent.
It is important to note that of the 55 seats going to polls today, the BJP had won 38 in 2017. Two years later, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party could establish a lead in only 27 assembly segments.
Muslim vote matters
As mentioned earlier, many of the constituencies in Phase two are Muslim-dominated. This is one of the reasons why the BJP may find it tough in this phase.
Political observers reckon that the SP-led alliance will likely get the bulk of Muslim votes. Yadav and other OBC groups too have been traditionally voting for the SP.
According to Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey data, nearly 55 per cent of Muslims are estimated to have voted for the Samajwadi Party (SP) in 2017. The SP had won 15 seats of the 55 seats in the last Assembly elections and had a vote share of 26 per cent. The party's vote share in this region was higher than its average vote share in the rest of the state.
If you look back at the 2017 Assembly polls, the SP, who was in alliance with the Congress, had wrangled a vote share of 34 per cent in this region, compared to BJP’s 38 per cent. In the 2019 general elections, the SP, who had then allied with BSP, had a higher vote share than the BJP in these 55 seats.
Farmers’ anger may be another hurdle
And the BJP doesn’t only have to worry about the Muslim vote. The state's major belt of sugarcane farmers, around 35 lakh of them, whose problems have become one of the top poll issues, will also come into the picture in the second phase.
News agency ANI reports that Bareilly has 70 per cent sugarcane farmers, Moradabad has around 60 per cent, Badaun has 40 per cent, Bijnor has more than 50 per cent , Rampur has around 45 per cent, Sambhal has 35 per cent sugarcane farmers, Saharanpur and Amroha have 65 per cent and 60 per cent respectively, and Shahjahanpur has 35 per cent cash crop, growers.
Moreover, political pundits believe that the SP’s decision to ally with Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) will help the vote to sway to their favour.
As Hindustan Times has reported that even if a fraction of Jats desert the BJP in favour of the SP-RLD alliance, things could get difficult for the former.
As of now, we don’t know what is going to happen, but all we can do is sit and wait till 10 March when the results will be out. Will it be the BJP or will the SP-RLD pull off a win?
With inputs from agencies
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February 14, 2022 at 10:24AM
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