Elections are about numbers, votes and turnout. But India’s presidential polls, due in July 2022, are slightly different.
The BJP, along with its allies, has an easy majority in the presidential electoral college. This comprises MPs of both Houses of Parliament and MLAs of all state assemblies. So, the numbers add up for the BJP and its broader NDA coalition.
They also have the required majority in both houses of Parliament to elect the next Vice-President, making the results a fait accompli. That has been the norm over the past few decades with the government in power orchestrating a candidate it favours.
New Delhi’s political circles are in top gear discussing possible names for the two posts. As per information coming in, there seems to be hardly any scope for a second term for the two current incumbents: President Ramnath Kovind and Vice-President Venkaiah Naidu.
No President, with the exception of first President Rajendra Prasad, has got a second term in office.
There are quite a few hats in the metaphorical ring. But it is certain the prime minister alone would take a final call on the new names.
There’s also a move to field an Opposition candidate with the support of NDA ally and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar.
Though Nitish Kumar has not given any indication of supporting a non-NDA candidate, leaders such as Mamata Banerjee and K Chandrashekhar Rao are reportedly offering to support his choice of candidate.
Nitish has been upset with the BJP for some time and has been moving closer to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD. He attended the iftar party twice thrown by Lalu’s son and emerging political hero, Tejaswi Yadav.
The relationship between the president and prime minister also needs to be evaluated periodically as two incidents from the past cast their own shadow. Simply put, if the ties between these two are not good then the trickle of a problem could become a torrent.
Apparently, former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and former president Giani Zail Singh had a severe trust deficit. This was chronicled in those days in the media and subsequently laid out in greater detail in books.
In fact, a plot to topple Rajiv Gandhi was known to Zail Singh, a book titled The Untold Truth, by Lt General PN Hoon, a former Army commander of the Western Command, suggests.
Rajiv Gandhi himself was not too confident about Zail Singh either and had reportedly used Intelligence Bureau officers to snoop on him. Rajiv Gandhi was extremely suspicious of Singh ever since his mother Indira Gandhi was gunned down.
Zail Singh felt that Rajiv Gandhi was reportedly corrupt. He doubted Rajiv’s intention to bring justice to those Sikhs killed in the rioting following the death of Indira Gandhi.
According to the book, there were three para commando battalions which were asked to move to Delhi and take over the government then led by Rajiv Gandhi. The book states that some politicians too who were not happy with Rajiv, were in the know of the plot.
Zail Singh, however, did not pursue it. He reportedly felt any such move by the armed forces to topple and take over a government in Delhi could have a terrible ripple effect. He also knew such a move could transfer power to the armed forces.
Rajiv Gandhi believed that Zail Singh was in touch with leaders of the Khalistan movement and ordered that every conversation be recorded.
Moloy Krishna Dhar, regarded as one of the best intelligence officers, wrote in his book that it was Rajiv Gandhi who had ordered the snooping of Zail Singh. The book by Dhar, Open Secrets: India's Intelligence Unveiled, speaks about the agency being used for snooping often by the Gandhis.
Former prime minister Indira Gandhi was one of India's first politicians to resort to snooping. She asked the IB to keep a tab on the then home minister, Giani Zail Singh.
Zail Singh's conversation with Khalistan militant Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale was recorded and handed over to her.
Another skirmish took place between India’s first president, Dr Rajendra Prasad, and the first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, over the Hindu Code Bill.
The brush between the two began even before the bill was formally introduced in Parliament. Prasad wrote to the prime minister on 15 September 1951, saying: “My right to examine it (the bill) on its merits, when it is passed by the Parliament, before giving assent to it is there. But if any action of mine at a later stage is likely to cause embarrassment to the Government, I may take such appropriate actions as I may be called upon to avoid such embarrassment consistently with the dictates of my own conscience.”
Nehru treated the letter as a threat to the government. Nehru wrote: “You also refer to your right to examine the bill on its merits when it is passed by the Parliament before giving your assent to it...this might involve a conflict between the President on the one side, and government and Parliament on the other.”
Prasad quoted British rules to establish that the President was not all that helpless and there were restraints on the government and Parliament too.
This strand resurfaced 35 years later when Rajiv Gandhi was asked almost the same question: Who gave his government the legitimacy to do things for which it did not seek a specific mandate from the electorate?
Let’s take a quick look at the process to elect a new President:
A President is elected by the members of the Electoral College comprising elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and elected MLAs and UTs of Delhi and Puducherry. MLCs and nominated members do not form part of the Electoral College.
Uttar Pradesh has the highest value of votes in the Electoral College. The BJP was more secure from UP the last time around as it had greater numbers of MLAs.
The value of the vote of every MP is fixed at 708, while among states the value of the vote of an MLA is the highest at 208. Accordingly, the total value of votes of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly is the highest at 83,824.
In terms of numbers, the Electoral College is made up of 233 members of Rajya Sabha, 543 members of Lok Sabha and 4,120 members of Legislative Assemblies — a total of 4,896 electors.
The presidential election follows the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. The value of each vote is pre-determined in proportion to the population of the respective state based on the 1971 Census.
This is an important point to remember. The higher the population, the more valuable is the state. UP tops the list with the numbers of MPs and MLAs it elects.
The total value of the Electoral College, comprising 4,896 electors, is 10,98,903 and the winning candidate has to get at least 50 per cent plus one vote to be declared elected.
The BJP-led NDA can flex its political muscle after having won 4 out of 5 states in the latest round of state elections. Their biggest club in the bag is Uttar Pradesh, followed by Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur.
Although the alliance doesn’t have a majority in the Rajya Sabha, the alliance's presidential candidate would surely have an edge. By the end of 2022, the BJP would be able to cross 100 seats for the first time in the 243-chair House. Currently, it has 97 members.
Already, there are reports coming in of a high-level meeting between the BJP’s ruling dispensation and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) who together control a sizeable chunk of votes.
The Election Commission has announced that voting for electing India's next President will take place on 18 July 2022 with the counting of votes on 21 July.
This time, a total of 4,809 lawmakers, including 776 parliamentarians and 4,033 legislators would cast their votes. Political parties cannot issue any whip to their members.
So, every prime minister hopes to have a President who is on their right side. Already, there are numerous reports of dysfunctional ties between governors and chief ministers. But that is another story for another day.
The author is CEO of nnis. Views expressed are personal.
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June 10, 2022 at 06:57AM
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