As the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election is inching towards its conclusion, the BSP seems to have started gaining some momentum. This author has observed this interesting development while doing recent telephone interviews of office bearers of political parties across the state.
This development is counterfactual to the pre-poll predictions which have shown that the party might struggle to gain enough seats. However, such developments during the election campaign are known as ‘campaign effect’ which plays an indispensable role in deciding electoral outcomes.
The BSP has been previously underestimated since party supremo Mayawati remained quiet throughout the year, and the Election Commission has imposed strict regulations of political rallies. The BSP has been known for mobilising voters through physical rallies; therefore, such regulations have been impacting the electoral prospects of the party.
In addition, the party has seen a series of defections of senior leaders after breaking of alliance with the SP. Such episodes have also created a negative image about the electoral strategies of the party. However, the party seems to be overcoming such a negative image.
I analyse the reasons which seem to have brought the BSP back some electoral momentum.
Ticket distribution
The BSP seems to be gaining its main strength from the candidate nominations. There has already been speculation that the party would not be able to succeed in this election, which seems to have discouraged wealthy candidates from buying the candidacies.
It is an open secret that the BSP sells its ticket to the wealthy candidates, but this time the party has nominated candidates who have been party office bearers. The party seems to have been compelled to do this because of the lack of availability of wealthy candidates. Such candidates often enjoy strong emotional support among the voters, increasing their possibilities of winning.
The BJP has denied tickets to a number of its sitting MLAs, and some of them have joined the BSP for contesting polls, because they do not want someone else to make a stronghold in their constituencies. Such candidates have also contributed to creating momentum. Similarly, the SP has also denied tickets to many strong local leaders in order to accommodate allied parties and deserted leaders from BJP and BSP. This has created resentment among local leaders, some of whom have joined the BSP to contest elections.
While the SP has refrained from nominating Muslim candidates due to fear of polarisation, the BSP has used this as an opportunity to penetrate in Muslim voters. Hence, the party has nominated highest number of candidates from Muslim community.
Rallying of core voters
Voters from Chamars and Jatavs are considered to be the core voters of the BSP. They constitute around 54.23 percent of the SC/ST population of Uttar Pradesh. The SP has paid strenuous effort in breaking this caste; to do so, the party has nominated 42 candidates from Jatav/Chamar castes. The SP has special focus on the reserved constituencies in this election. However, on non-reserved seats where a BSP candidate is in the winning race, the voter of this caste seems to be standing with the BSP.
The support for the BSP among its core voters is not guided by any normative constraints, but a strategic belief that if the fight would become triangular, it might result in a hung Assembly; and in such a scenario, a fresh opportunity might arise for the BSP leadership. This explanation of the BSP voters seems to be less based on the rational analysis of current political scenario but confirmation bias, and that the people get attracted towards information and justifications that strengthens their belief.
The BSP voters seem to be looking for a rational explanation for their decision to support the BSP in this election. Moreover, the future of post-poll alliance has less possibility since the BJP in its current avatar is the hegemonic party of the country, and the party can successfully engineer defection for farming government rather than bowing down in front of the demand of any political ally.
Wrong ticket distribution strategy of SP
SP president Akhilesh Yadav kept declaring/changing candidates till the last date of nomination. This was because he is said to have taken sole responsibility for candidate selection. Therefore, he could not meet the prospective candidates whose ticket had been denied. Many of such candidates also joined BSP and they are contesting.
Under the pressure of old guards of the party and allied parties, Akhilesh is said to have blundered on a few seats which the BSP might be able to win.
BJP’s campaign of projecting BSP as strong contender
The BJP did not want this Assembly election to become a bipolar contest. The party strategists think that in such scenario, there might be strong polarisation of Yadav, Muslim, and Chamar in the favour of SP. Such a social coalition might pave the way for the BJP’s defeat. Hence, to avoid bipolar contest, the BJP strategists have also been spreading private information that the BSP is in the race.
Such information might force Chamar and Jatav voters to stick to the BSP, and would prevent increasing vote share of the SP. Such a situation might help the BJP through.
Although the BSP seems to have gained some momentum, it is largely the product of external factors rather than internal efforts of the party. Such momentum might improve on the previous performance of the party, but it might not be enough to play any role in the government formation.
The author is PhD Scholar of politics at the Department of Politics and International Relations, Royal Holloway, University of London, UK. Views expressed are personal.
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March 02, 2022 at 05:15PM
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