The polling for the last phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election was held on 7 March, 2022. In this phase, 54 Assembly constituencies of Azamgarh (10), Mau (4), Jaunpur (9), Ghazipur (7), Chandauli (4), Varanasi (8), Bhadohi (3), Mirzapur (5), and Sonbhadra (4) went to polls. The Azamgarh, Mau, and Jaunpur districts have been strongholds of the Samajwadi Party (SP), whereas the rest have been strongholds of the BJP and its ally, Apana Dal (S).
The last phase will also test the popularity of the leaders of smaller parties such as Anupirya Patel, Sanjay Nishad, Krishna Patel, Om Prakash Rajbhar, and Sanjay Chouhan; hence, this phase is also getting referred to as the real test of ‘vice-captains’.
The ongoing UP election has witnessed heavy mobilisation of voters around issues rather than caste and community. Based on telephonic interview of local leaders and observers, I find that only four castes/communities — Rajput, Bania, Yadav, and Muslim — seem to have given primary consideration to their social identity rather than issues.
Rajput voters are said to have been voting to the BJP en masse since the incumbent chief minister belongs to their caste, the similar affinity Bania voters seem to have developed with Narendra Modi. Yadav voters are said to be voting to the SP en masse since the principal opponent is Akhilesh Yadav, and Muslim voters’ support to the SP seems to be due to their strategic consideration of voting to the party/candidate having highest possibility to defeat the BJP.
As for others, there seems to be fragmentation of votes along the issues. I analyse two sets of issues which have taken centre-stage in deciding voting behaviour of the people — free ration and cash transfer versus the old pension scheme and cattle menace.
Free ration and cash transfer
The free ration delivery along with the cash transfer scheme of the BJP government seems to have given the party a big boost in this election. With the help of these two schemes, the BJP has been able to mobilise poor voters cutting across the caste and community line. These twin schemes have also been able to subdue the anti-incumbency factor against the Yogi Adityanath government.
The districts of Bundelkhand, Awadh, Terai, and Poorvanchal have higher poverty ratio, therefore, these regions have seen the voting of the poor on these schemes. Among these regions, constituencies of Poorvanchal are going to be polled in the last round of polling.
There has been long criticism of the Public Distribution System (PDS) of India, but the BJP’s renewed ability to distribute free ration without corruption, and its subsequent outcome of voter’s mobilisation need to be freshly acknowledged.
Pension scheme and cattle menace
The salaried class voters and farming communities seem to be mobilised around the issue of the old pension scheme and cattle menace respectively. These two issues seem to have mobilised voters cutting across caste and community lines towards the SP.
The constituencies in the last phase of polling have a substantive presence of primary and secondary school teachers, for whom, the revival of the old pension scheme is of paramount concern. The main reason behind this is their anxiety of losing economic well-being after retirement. The new pension scheme is said to be beneficial for those who join government service in early age, and the teachers along with government employees of SC/ST/OBC community generally join their service in the advanced age since they get age relaxation.
The cattle menace is the biggest issue for the agrarian community in Uttar Pradesh. The castes and communities that have land holding and their income depends on crops have been badly affected due to the cattle menace. This issue has aroused due to the policies of Yogi Adityanath, so the anger of the agrarian community is directed towards his government.
The cattle policies of the Yogi Adityanath government have impacted agrarian communities in the following five ways. First, blatant banning of animal slaughter and subsequent police raids on slaughterhouses have resulted in the declining sale of animals in the market, causing decline in the price of animals. Second, farmers started leaving their old cows and young calves in nearby areas resulting in an increase of stray cattle which started damaging agriculture crops. Farmers have already been facing problems due to the damage caused by Nilgais, and banning their hunting further increased their population causing a surge in the overall damage of crops.
Third, farmers have been forced to sleep in their agriculture fields in order to protect their crops, but practically it is not an effective solution because farmers own lands at different places, so sleeping in all fields at the same time has not been possible.
Besides, women farmers could not sleep in their agriculture field due to safety reasons. Fourth, the cattle menace issue has forced farmers to change cropping patterns — avoiding growing perishable crops such as vegetables, which can be more damaged by stray cattle and shifting towards the crops which can be less damaged. This has resulted in an increasing price of vegetables in the market.
Fifth, stray animals have caused a lot of road accidents in rural areas, resulting in serious injuries, and death of young people, particularly bikers. Although the Adityanath government took some measures such as building gaushala for handling this issue, such measures have been ineffective at the grassroots level. It must be noted that if the government cannot run railways and airlines effectively, how can it run gaushalas effectively?
There are three broad messages coming from the UP election. First, before launching any schemes, the leaders need to thoroughly study the pros and cons of such schemes, and how they are going to impact the lives of the poor. Second, the success of free ration and cash transfer schemes reminds that such pro-poor policies still hold a lot of sway among people.
Finally, the voters of Uttar Pradesh seem to be moving away from emotive issues and becoming concerned towards their economic well-being.
The author is PhD Scholar of politics at the Department of Politics and International Relations, Royal Holloway, University of London, UK. Views expressed are personal.
March 09, 2022 at 09:34PM
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