The results of the Assembly elections for five states — Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur — have reflected some distinct trends. The victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in four states tells us that the party has not only mastered the art of winning elections but also retaining the states where it wins. The BJP continues to consolidate its position in most of the states it has been winning. It has repeated its victory march in UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. And it has been able to do this quite convincingly.
Conversely, the Congress seems to be not only losing the ground in the states which it has been ruling as it lost Punjab miserably, it has failed to replace the sitting BJP governments in Uttarakhand and Goa where it was supposed to have a fair chance, according to several pre-poll analyses. The party’s disastrous run continues in Uttar Pradesh. In the north-eastern Manipur too, it seems to have lost the ground irretrievably.
The marginalisation of Congress would further affect the moral of its cadres. The confidence of party cadres in its leadership must have hit an all-time low. It is an extremely difficult situation for Congress. Its alliances are not working out. In fact, even the regional parties are now wary of having any alliance with it. The first preference of smaller parties is now to join hands with BJP. The second preference are the regionally strong parties.
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With a fast depleting stable of friendly parties at the state level and the party leadership’s failure to enthuse its own cadres, the road ahead is quite difficult for the Congress. One of the key impacts of these Assembly results is a possible exodus of many mid-level and some senior leaders from the party who seem to be increasingly convinced that the chances of revival of Congress even as the main Opposition party at national level are grimmer than ever.
This also brings us to another interesting trend. Despite the victory of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab and improvement of tally of seats for the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh, the Opposition has also become even more fragmented. It doesn’t seem possible in the near future that a united front can be forged by the Opposition parties in India which mainly comprise regional outfits. There is no love lost between them and they don’t seem to have an agreement on a single leader who could be the face of the Opposition.
The AAP is quite buoyant after its massive victory in Punjab and sees itself as a possible alternative to the BJP at the national level. In addition to the Congress, it is the only Opposition party which is ruling more than one state now. It has governments in both Punjab as well as Delhi.
It has tested waters in Goa and Uttarakhand where it was supposed to be a surprise factor. But it didn’t click. However, it nurses ambitions under the leadership of Arvind Kejriwal to become the main Opposition party against the ruling BJP in 2024.
There are, however, many stumbling blocks that could derail this ambition. First, the AAP is not able to build a nationwide cadre and it has started relying heavily on inducting leaders from other parties. One cannot build a party on the basis of turncoats. The original cadres of the party are far and few and sooner than later there is bound to be tussle between these original cadres and the turncoats who are joining the party lock, stock and barrel. Kejriwal would have to overcome these challenges which would emerge with an increasing intensity as the party expands its base.
Second, the AAP’s political ideology is still evolving, so far it has relied on offering ‘freebies’ and promising effective government. These claims would be tested in Punjab in times to come. AAP might have a governance model but its political ideology is yet to take a robust shape.
Third, the biggest drawback of AAP in the long run is that it is an individual driven party. The Bahujan Samaj Party should be a case study in this context. Till a decade ago, BSP was a force to reckon with in the state of Uttar Pradesh and was emerging as a rallying point for the socially marginalised sections of the society across the country.
Driven by Mayawati, the party failed to keep the momentum precisely because of the lack of cadre-building mechanism. And today, the party is on the verge of becoming politically extinct. It failed to make any mark in Uttar Pradesh. Punjab has around 32 per cent Scheduled Caste population but BSP is nowhere on the political landscape. Its alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has failed to revive the party’s fortunes there.
One needs to understand that there is a difference between party ‘members’ and party ‘cadres’. Party members have to be converted to party cadres through regular training programmes and political activities. But all this has to be carried out within a specific ideological framework. This framework is dynamic and it can keep on adapting itself according to the change in the political environment but there has to be a ‘core’ which doesn’t change with time. It is eternal. That is what makes an ideological framework help the party grow in a sustainable and focused manner.
The speed of expansion isn’t generally fast in initial years and it takes decades to form a core base of cadres which help the party win elections after elections. This is what BJP has been able to do. First as Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS) and then as BJP, the party has worked hard on its ‘cadre’ base and continues to do so. It took almost six decades before it started its major winning streak in Indian electoral politics in the 1990s.
This is what has helped the party to make a major comeback even after being out of power from Centre and in many states during 2004 to 2014. The galvanisation of BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi is an outcome of a long-drawn process. Those who want to challenge them should know, there is no short cut to success, not even in Indian politics.
The writer, an author and columnist, has written several books. Views expressed are personal.
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March 12, 2022 at 01:19PM
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