The GhoseSpot does not indulge in punting. Thus, in the previous dispatch it did not make any predictions but presented a scenario for “what if” the BJP is routed, as some sections of the liberal intelligentsia and media had fervently wished. In conclusion, it said whether BJP wins or loses, Narendra Modi’s task was pretty much cut out for the next two years — till the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
True to Narendra Modi and the “New” BJP’s style, the day after the results, the prime minister was headed for Gujarat conducting meetings and roadshows virtually kicking off the campaign for the state Assembly elections scheduled for December this year. It is pertinent to note, Modi’s Gujarat programme was decided in advance and much before the results were announced.
This is significant for two reasons. First, it indicates Modi’s unwavering nature. Once he sets his goal, he does not let victory or defeat come in the way of his mission. He had referred to this mindset philosophy in one of his “Pariksha Pe Charcha” with students. He told them that the day Gujarat Assembly elections for 2012 were over, he had already moved onto his next objective of contesting 2014 Lok Sabha without waiting for the results. Second, it reveals that elections are always uppermost on his mind. We need to appreciate the latter for applying a ‘reality check’ on our expectations.
Gujarat, however, is not just another state going to polls between now and 2024. Though it may not be in the league of Uttar Pradesh, it is of special importance for Narendra Modi and Amit Shah for multiple reasons. In 2017, Gujarat was a close shave for the BJP. Since then, there has been a complete meltdown in the Congress. After the instant setbacks it is unlikely that the Congress can get its act together anytime soon. But nature abhors vacuum.
The space vacated by Congress can be filled up by others between now and the elections. Riding high on its success in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party is looking to expand its national footprint. Gujarat offers a natural choice. The BJP has been in power for a record 24 years in the state. There is disenchantment among caste groups and factional politics within the party that led to the change of two chief ministers since Narendra Modi moved to Delhi. Had it not been for Modi’s charisma the party would have been voted out by now.
A poster child of development, Gujarat has its own share of woes. Among other problems, while Uttar Pradesh grabbed headlines for COVID-19, its impact on Gujarat in both the phases were devastating. Besides, being a cash-based economy, it is yet to fully recover from the after-effects of demonetisation. Anti-incumbency apart, there is a high level of fatigue among the voters and some ennui has set in the party ranks.
This makes it an opportune time for a change. In the absence of a credible alternative, the AAP can count on large-scale crossover from the emaciated Congress and a monolithic BJP to fast-forward its entry into the state.
Even a chance defeat of BJP in Gujarat to AAP can have unintended consequences on national politics. Modi and Amit Shah are too sharp to allow that. They will not let Arvind Kejriwal do an encore of what he pulled off in Punjab. The outcome in Gujarat will have bearing on other states that will go for elections in 2023 — namely Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. This could also change the intra-party dynamics of the BJP. After his spectacular re-election, it can be safely assumed that Yogi Adityanath will grab a greater share of national eyeballs. Modi-Shah would be loath to yield prime space to him by a sub-par performance in their home turf.
The time between now and Gujarat elections offers a crucial window for Narendra Modi to push through bold decisions on all fronts — politics, foreign policy, economy. After that, it will be too close to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls for any major gambit. To leave a lasting impression of Modi 2.0, he cannot miss this opportunity.
At the same time, the developments in Europe can derail the best laid plans. Global oil prices and sanctions can stall economic recovery and inflation can spiral out of control. Job creation will slow down, and unemployment will weigh down rural India, which has shown great resilience through the pandemic. Supply of free ration cannot be a sustainable option in the long run.
The geopolitical ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war are yet to fully unravel. Even if the ongoing conflict is diffused it is going to cause disruptive changes in the global power equations. The situation in the neighbourhood is likely to remain edgy, with Pakistan going through its own existential crisis and China jostling for greater space in the emerging new world order. This is bound to consume a great deal of the prime minister’s bandwidth.
A common refrain in these elections was “Double Engine ki Sarkar”. A major factor for the BJP’s return in Uttar Pradesh with such a decisive majority beating all odds and precedents is people saw the ‘Double Engine’ in action for the first time in nearly 40 years. To navigate through these turbulent times, the states and the Centre will have to fire in tandem on all cylinders. This cannot be limited to only BJP-governed states and extend also to the Opposition-ruled ones. That can only happen in a spirit of “collaborative” (not just cooperative) federalism.
Narendra Modi is far too an astute politician and administrator not to understand these imperatives. This might require him to calibrate his style to ease the hostility with non-BJP chief ministers and empower BJP chief ministers with commensurate accountability. His relationship with Naveen Patnaik can be a template for the former. The UP model can be followed for BJP states to deliver both on governance and electoral dividends.
Having replenished his political capital in these Assembly elections, Modi is at an inflexion point to put his career on a higher plane. He is, therefore, well poised to take a more magnanimous approach towards his adversaries and play the role of an elder statesman with his colleagues. In that way, Narendra Modi will cement his place in history rather than work to win yet another general election.
The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. Views expressed are personal.
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March 14, 2022 at 09:43AM
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