As Uttar Pradesh votes in its final phase on Monday {7 March}, everyone has their eyes trained at the exit polls, as they will be released this evening, shortly after the polling ends.
Follow all LIVE updates from UP Assembly election Phase 7 voting HERE
Exit polls will be released this evening for the five states that went to polls — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur.
It may be recalled that 403 seats of Uttar Pradesh went to polls in seven phases -- on 10, 14, 20, 23, 27 February and 3 and 7 March. Of the five states that went to the polls, Goa and Uttarakhand voted in a single phase on 14 February. On the other hand, 117 seats of Punjab went to polls in a single phase on 20 February. The hill state of Manipur voted in two phases – on 28 February and 5 March.
While everyone gears up to see what the exit polls predict, we take a look at what they are, how they are calculated and what had the 2017 exit polls predicted for the state of Uttar Pradesh.
Exit polls explained
Exit polls are basically a poll or survey of voters exiting polling stations after casting their votes. Exit polls are conducted by numerous organisations which use different methods for the purpose.
Such polls aim at predicting the actual result on the basis of the information collected from voters.
The logic behind exit polls is that if you ask the voter right outside the polling booth, their memory is fresh and they are likely to tell you the truth.
The practice of carrying out exit polls began as far back as 1957 in India.
There are various methods in carrying out an exit poll. To conduct an exit poll, a random sample size is first selected. The sample size could range anywhere between 20-25,000 voters to 7-8 lakh voters.
Experts opine that while it isn't necessary to survey people of all the constituencies, the sample size should have representatives from at least half the constituencies.
What is the law on exit polls?
Section 126A of the Representation of the People's Act, 1951 puts a ban on exit polls from the period between the commencements of the poll until half an hour after the closing of the final phase of the poll.
Any person who contravenes the provisions of this section shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with fine or with both.
How reliable are exit polls?
The accuracy of exit polls has been a subject of debate over the years. Experts state that they aren't accurate and only provide a broad trend and a sense of direction as to the mood of the nation.
There have been instances in the past when exit polls have failed to capture the mood of voters. The experience so far suggests that the exit poll often presents a broader picture of the election results but remains far away from the results after counting.
In 1996, the exit polls conducted by CSDS for the Lok Sabha elections correctly predicted a hung verdict. The actual results saw the BJP a few seats ahead — just enough to form the government but not enough to hold on for five years.
But there are many instances when pollsters have got it wrong.
UP’s 2017 exit polls
Just months after demonetisation, most exit polls had predicted a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh. The exit polls had stated, however, that the BJP would emerge as the largest party.
For the unversed, the Uttar Pradesh assembly has 403 seats. A party or coalition needs 202 seats for a majority.
Barring India Today-Axis survey and Today's Chanakya {251 to 279 and 285}, all the other exit polls had reported that the BJP would win around 160 to 180 seats.
However, the BJP surprised them all and came out on top with a thumping 312 seats; their allies, the Apna Dal (Sonelal) led by Anupriya Patel and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party headed by Om Prakash Rajbhar won nine and four seats respectively, taking the BJP+'s count to 325.
Most exit polls had also predicted that the SP-Congress alliance would bag anywhere between 80 to 160 seats. Unfortunately, the pollsters got it wrong again when the final tally emerged and that the alliance had managed to bag only 54 of the seats {47 for SP and only 7 for the Congress}.
When exit polls got it ‘oh so wrong’
Exit polls have always been accurate and in India there are a few times when the numbers have been so far from the actual results.
For instance, exit polls predicted a photo-finish for the the bitterly-contested Bihar Assembly elections in 2015. Most exit polls predicted a mixed picture with no clear majority to any alliance. However, in actual result the RJD-JDU-Congress scored a thumping victory with Lalu Prasad's RJD emerging as the single largest party.
Another example of how they got it wrong was during the 2014 general elections.
While most of the exit polls predicted a NDA win, they had said that the BJP and its allies would be just short of the majority mark of 272. However, when the actual result came the NDA scored a major victory with tally well above 300 and BJP alone crossing the majority mark.
What had exit polls said in 2017
In 2017, other than UP, the states of Punjab, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand had also gone to the polls.
In Uttarakhand, the exit poll conducted by Chanakya-News24 was the closest to predicting the result. It had projected 53 seats for BJP and 15 for the Congress. The actual results had BJP winning in 57 seats and Congress in 11.
In Punjab, none of the exit polls were able to predict the AAP's loss. All the agencies had said that the AAP would win approximately 40 seats; however, the results showed that they won only 20 seats.
With inputs from agencies
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March 07, 2022 at 01:08PM
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