Psephologists love acronyms. TINA and NOTA are two of the best. TINA is “There is no alternative”. NOTA is “None of the above”. Both TINA and NOTA left their stamp on the 2022 Assembly elections.
The TINA factor became very closely associated in Indian politics with Narendra Modi ever since he led the BJP to a spectacular win in 2014.
Cut to the 2022 Assembly elections, the BJP has in its bag the plum states of Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur. It was never in contention in Punjab.
Uttar Pradesh was the biggest club in the bag. And the BJP used it brilliantly. There were many who said Yogi Adityanath would flounder in the face of certain hard-core issues like unemployment, mishandling of the second COVID wave, migrants being forced to walk home, excessive pushing of the Hindutva agenda, fixation with building temples and statues at humongous cost, and saffronisation of the political agenda.
It was also said that Yogi was not the right man for the job. Being catapulted from Gorakhpur to Lucknow with a checkered past wasn’t an ideal scenario. News of a possible rift between Lucknow and Delhi also did the rounds.
Then Modi stepped in. The famed BJP election machinery ploughed on like a juggernaut. A photo op was organised in Lucknow with Modi walking alongside Yogi with an arm on his shoulder. That picture said more than a thousand words.
The TINA factor, therefore, applies to Modi and the BJP he leads. No ground issue, barring a few rare exceptions, seems to pose a pushback. This means all the points discussed in the media about election issues and anti-incumbency had zero ground impact. The BJP did drop 57 seats in UP, but the win was a very convincing one under difficult circumstances.
The overall Assembly elections of 2022 would show a 4-1 result for Modi and the BJP. It is an emphatic win. It also dulls the pain of the BJP losing West Bengal to Mamata Banerjee’s epic “Khela Hobe” fightback.
No party can win all the time. But Modi is winning most of the time. This means as India moves towards the next general elections in 2024, the big question would be: Where is the alternative to Modi and the BJP?
Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is on a high after his stunning win in Punjab. Overnight his “Delhi Model” of governance has been rechristened as the “Kejriwal Model.” He is being touted as a national alternative. Mamata Banerjee of Trinamool Congress (TMC) is also eyeing the slot. Sharad Pawar, the wily patriarch ensconced in Mumbai, shepherding the flock of the MVA (Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi) government, always has his hat in the ring.
But, as of now, there is no doubt that Modi wears the TINA badge with aplomb. It is prudent to note how things transformed between the election campaign and the day of voting. From naysayers chirping away about alleged misrule, unfulfilled promises, administrative mismanagement and hunting for a new viable option; the game changed dramatically on D-day.
The voter opted for a larger conglomerate which could deliver; was battle tested; and in that light some sins were forgiven.
Politically, any challenger to the BJP must realise it would need to garner much higher vote percentages if it intends to topple the status quo. The BJP would always get a set percentage: as it happened in Uttar Pradesh. So, Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party had to double up. In the current scenario that was in the realm of the impossible.
In the closer, neck and neck fights, in the smaller states, again the ruling party at the Centre had an edge. Potential MLAs found it more worthwhile to align with a ruling dispensation.
British intellectual Herbert Spencer would often use, “There Is No Alternative”, as his frequent reply to critics of capitalism, free markets and democracy. It was a slogan often used by Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Thatcher used it to claim the market economy is the best, right and only system that works, and that debate about this is over. Eventually, ‘TINA’ became the nickname of Thatcher.
This brings us to NOTA, “none of the above”, which is a vote of disapproval. It is to enable the voter to register a vote of rejection if they feel the contesting candidates do not deserve to be voted for.
On 27 September, 2013, the Supreme court ruled that the right to register a “none of the above” vote in elections should apply. This symbol appears in the last panel on all EVMs.
According to data available on the Election Commission website, nearly eight lakh voters, who exercised their franchise in the five states which went to Assembly polls, used the “none of the above” or NOTA option.
In Manipur, out of the total voters, 10,349 or 0.6 per cent used the NOTA option. Similarly, in Goa, 10,629 voters (1.1 per cent) used the option.
In Uttar Pradesh, which has the maximum number of 403 Assembly seats, 621,186 voters or 0.7 per cent used the NOTA option. In Uttarakhand, those who pressed the NOTA button EVMs stood at 46,830 (0.9 per cent). In Punjab, 110,308 voters (0.9 per cent) went for NOTA.
The total stands at 799,302 voters in all five states.
The 'NOTA' option on electronic voting machines, introduced in 2013, has its own symbol — a ballot paper with a black cross across it.
The election results put the spotlight strongly on the TINA factor; while NOTA showed nearly 8 lakh voters came to exercise their franchise but ended up showing their displeasure. These are twin lessons worth evaluating as India looks ahead to the next general elections in 2024.
The author is CEO of nnis. Views expressed are personal.
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March 15, 2022 at 07:26AM
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