An opinion poll survey conducted in the four poll-bound states predicted that three of the incumbent state governments might be able to retain power, even if with depleted margins. But winds of change are blowing in the southern state of Tamil Nadu.
The poll, conducted by Times Now-Cvoter predicted that BJP will hold on to power in Assam with a slim majority, Left Front will be back in Kerala and TMC will retain power but BJP will make huge gains in the eastern state. In Tamil Nadu, however, the Times Now-CVoter survey projected that Opposition DMK will likely wrest power from the ruling AIADMK-lead NDA by winning 158 of the 234 seats in the Assembly. In Puducherry, the lone Union Territory which is going to polls with its two neighbouring states, the BJP-led alliance was seen winning a majority.
It is important to note here that exit polls or pre-poll opinion surveys try to predict the actual result on the basis of the information collected from voters but are notorious to have missed the mark more often than not. No survey can usually match the full scale of the democratic exercise, with pollsters relying on limited sampling, which means that the results can swing in any direction.
West Bengal
In Bengal, the ruling All India Trinamool Congress Party could get around 154 of the state’s 294 seats, six more than the majority mark of 147 and down from 211 that the party won in 2016. The BJP, meanwhile, is expected to make major gains and may secure 107 seats – a massive gain from its current tally of three – the opinion poll said. The Left-Congress-led alliance could get around 33 seats, as per the survey results.
Elections for the West Bengal assembly will be held in eight phases, up from seven last time, beginning with polling for 30 seats on 27 March. The second phase of West Bengal's assembly elections has been scheduled for 1 April and will cover 30 constituencies, followed by the third phase on 6 April for 31 seats, the fourth on 10 April for 44 constituencies, the fifth on 17 April for 45 seats, sixth for 43 seats on 22 April, seventh phase on 26 April for 36 seats and last and eighth phase on 29 April for 35 seats.
The West Bengal Legislative Assembly (Vidhan Sabha) has a total number of 294 seats, of which, 68 seats re reserved for the Scheduled Castes and 16 seats are 1reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. The terms of the legislative Assembly of West Bengal will come to an end on 18 May 2021.
Tamil Nadu
According to the poll published in The Times of India, E Palaniswami-led AIADMK may win just 65 seats in 2021 Assembly giving way to a DMK clean sweep. DMK chief MK Stalin has emerged as the most preferred pick for a chief minister with 38 percent of people wanting him to take the job
Elections in Tamil Nadu have traditionally been a flip-flop between the two main parties, DMK and AIADMK but the trend was broken in the 2016 elections when AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa won a second term, becoming the first chief minister to do that since MG Ramachandran. The polls to the state will be held on 6 April 2020.
Kerala
In Kerala, the Pinarayi Vijayan lead government is projected to retain power in the state by winning 82 seats in the 140-member Assembly. The United Democratic Front, meanwhile, will sit in opposition once again winning 56 seats, as per the survey predictions.
The Kerala Assembly/Niyama Sabha polls will be held on 6 April 2021, along with Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The day will also see phase three polls in Assam and West Bengal.
The Kerala Legislative Assembly (Vidhan Sabha) has a total number of 140 seats, of which, 14 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Castes and two seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes.
The outgoing Assembly has eight female MLAs and rest 132 are male MLAs. The incumbent Kerala Niyamasabha will expire on 1 June, 2021.
Assam
In Assam, the Opposition may be able to chip away at the BJP's victory margins but the saffron party is set to return to power of the survey results are to be believed. The opinion poll has projected 67 seats for the ruling NDA in a 126-member House while the Congress-led Opposition will only get 57 seats.
In 2016, the NDA had won with a stronger majority, bagging 86 seats, while the Congress-lead alliance had received just 23.
The Assam elections will be held in three phases between 27 March and 6 April with the counting of votes on 2 May.
The first phase of the Assembly election will take place on 27 March in 47 constituencies, whereas polling in the second phase will see 39 constituencies going to vote on 1 April. The third and final phase will take place on 6 April with 40 constituencies going to poll.
Puducherry
Puducherry will also go to the NR Congress-led NDA, which the survey states may win 18 of the 30 seats in the Assembly polls. The Assembly had gone into a suspended animation a week before the polls were announced after the Congress government lost its majority in the House. Former chief minister V Narayansamy had blamed the BJP-lead central government for the political upheaval as the reason the party lost majority because several MLAs jumped ship and joined the BJP.
Puducherry will vote in a single-phase election on 6 April. The terms of the legislative Assembly of Puducherry would have concluded on 8 June this year but the state went under President's Rule on 22 February.
March 09, 2021 at 05:52PM
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